heavy card market ii league future prospects complicated and confusing
来自中国汽车工业协会的统计数据显示,2010年共销售重卡101.74万辆,同比增长59.93%,增幅高于同期42.22个百分点。然而10年前,我国的重卡年销量仅有8万余辆。10年时间,中国重卡销量增长了近13倍,整个重卡行业在疯狂的增长过程中迅速发展壮大,并且自主品牌占据了绝对的市场主导地位。
高增长能持续多久
受益于国内宏观经济增长、固定资产投资力度加大、公路货运总量持续攀升等一系列有利因素的推动,2010年重卡市场呈现出持续增长的态势,并且年销量首次突破百万辆大关。进入2011年,重卡市场开门红,据统计,行业龙头的几家重卡生产企业销售同比大幅度上涨。上汽依维柯红岩产销量3197辆,去年同期产销量2088辆,同比增长53.11%;东风商用车重卡东风天龙系列当月销量超万辆,同比增幅40%;东风天锦中卡系列销量3694辆,同比增幅150%;中国重汽发布产销数据称,重型汽车产量为21072辆,销量为18002辆,同比增加近70%……
然而,进入4月,中国重汽济南卡车公司发布一季度销售数据显示,1~3月公司重卡产量为38227辆,同比增0.6%,销量25076辆,同比增长13.19%。进入3月份,中国重汽销售遭遇滑铁卢,公司重卡销售10919辆,同比上年大幅下滑19.7%。
中国重卡销量在经历了去年60%左右的高增长后,2011年将向何处去?
既有品牌产能扩张
from the china association of automobile manufacturers statistical data showed that in 2010, the total sales of heavy card 1.0174 million vehicles, up 59.93%, higher than the 42.22% growth in the same period. but 10 years ago, china's heavy card only 80000 vehicles in sales. 10 years time, china's heavy card in 13 times sales growth, the heavy card industry in the frenzy of the growth process has grown rapidly, and the independent brand occupy the absolute market leading position.
high growth can last for a long time
benefit from domestic macroeconomic growth, fixed assets investment increase, highway freight amount continue to rise and so on a series of favorable factors drive, 2010 heavy card market present a growing trend, the year sales volume and the first time exceeded units mark. in 2011, a heavy card market, according to the statistics, the industry leading several heavy card production enterprise sales year-on-year rise greatly. saic motor yiweike hongyan production and sales of 3197 cars, committing 2088 vehicles in the same period last year, up by 53.11%; dongfeng commercial vehicle heavy card dongfeng tianlong series sales that month ultra vehicles, a 40% year-on-year rate of increase; the east wind day in sales of 3694 series cards kam, a 150% year-on-year rate of increase; cnhtc's production and sales data released, said heavy car output for 21072 cars, car sales for 18002, an increase of about 70%...
however, in april, sinotruk jinan trucks by quarter sales data display, 1 ~ 3 months the company produced 38227 car heavy cards, up 0.6% increase, sales of 25076 vehicles, a 13.19% increase year-on-year. in march, cnhtc's sales in waterloo, company heavy card sold at a 10919, up sharply last year fell 19.7%.
china has sold in the past year card about 60% growth in 2011, after heading?
both brand capacity expansion
the study reports that, along with the emission standard upgrade, the heavy card have upgraded period. 2003 years ago the purchasing the old products will be phased out, more consumers will turn to buy long service life, high low oil consumption of duanchong card, the next five years in the domestic leading enterprise will enter the sales, profit booming gold period. such as the heavy card market sales grew by 10% a year, unit price growth 5% computation, five years after the heavy card market sales will be doubled to 580 billion yuan, profit growth will be three times or so.
this analysis thinks that china has ushered in the second wave heavy card mount boom, heavy card industry has the obvious value upgrade process. from the unit price and profit margins, china's heavy card industry whole will experience a value upgrade process, it is estimated that by 2015, china's heavy card unit price will from 2010 yuan to 500000 yuan rise, gross profit margin will also from existing far below the condition of the passenger car gradually get change.
pointed out, the expected 2011 heavy card sales in about 1.06 million cars, a growth of about 10%. at the same time industry will show the low before the trend of the high, 2011 for "1025 plan" start to the year, investment to heavy card pull role will be in the second half of the year revealed.
industry points out that, under the influence of a series of the good news, heavy card the demand of the market in recent years speeding growth, this not only attracted industry into the enterprise, the enterprise is inside of heavy card with confidence set the magnificent the annual sales target.
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